Market Outlook
October 13, 2017
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
1.1
348
32,182
Nifty
1.1
112
10,096
U.S. stocks closed flat due to profit booking after the recent rally over the past few
sessions. Markets reacted negatively to earnings from Citigroup and JPMorgan with
Mid Cap
1.0
155
15,960
both stocks moving down 3.4 and 0.88 percent respectively. Producer prices rose by
Small Cap
1.2
193
16,904
0.4 percent in September. This was in line with expectations. Initial jobless claims
Bankex
0.9
257
27,381
dropped to 243,000, against expectations of a drop to 251,000.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
UK stocks closed mildly positive as the Pound moved slightly higher. UK Housing
prices moved higher in September, according to a survey from the Royal Institution
Dow Jones
(0.1)
(32)
22,841
of Chartered Surveyors an increase 6.0 percent against an expectation of a gain of
Nasdaq
(0.2)
(12)
6,592
4.0 percent. Gold miner Randgold Resources moved 1 percent higher as gold prices
FTSE
0.3
22
7,556
rose due to the marginally dovish stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve's September
Nikkei
(00.4
73
20,955
policy meeting.
Hang Seng
0.2
269
28,459
Indian markets posted strong gains as the 2QFY18 earnings season began. Metal
Shanghai Com
(0.1)
(2)
1
3,386
stocks rallied strongly with the Metal index closing up 1.9 percent. Aluminium stocks
in particular rallied strongly with Hindalco and Nalco closing up 6 and 5.6 percent
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
respectively. The other major gainer for the session was the Healthcare index, which
Advances
1,715
1,142
closed up 1.15 percent.
Declines
1,989
567
Result Review
Unchanged
115
72
Result Review Q2FY18: TCS
Volumes (` Cr)
Detailed analysis is on Pg2
BSE
3,621
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
NSE
27,360
Key Domestic & Global Indicator
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
#Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Refer Pg7 onwards
FII
(56870
(2(2,556)
4133,97
MFs
8198
4,3,784
1490,12
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Top Gainer
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods Accumulate
789
867
9.9
Dewan Housing FinanceFinancials
Accumulate
532
610
14.7
Nbcccem
242
9.6
Asian Granito
Other
Buy
491
570
16.0
Sundrmfast
501
8.5
Navkar Corporation
Other
Buy
189
265
40.6
Bbtc
1,488
8.4
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Accumulate
333
380
14.2
More Top Picks on Pg5
Edelweiss
294
7.4
Jindalstel
162
6.6
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Top Loser
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Oct13, 2017 India
Industrial Production YoY
1.20
2.60
Bomdyeing
214
(5.0)
Oct13, 2017 India
Exports YoY%
10.30
Aiaeng
1,387
(2.9)
Oct13, 2017 India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
3.24
3.30
Petronet
253
(2.0)
Oct13, 2017 US
Consumer price index (mom)
0.40
0.60
Gppl
139
(2.0)
Oct16, 2017 China
Exports YoY%
5.60
10.00
More Events on Pg7
Jisljaleqs
93
(1.9)
#as on 12th Oct, 2017
Market Outlook
October 13, 2017
Result Review
TCS (CMP: `2,549 / TP: /Upside: )
The company posted 3.2% sequential growth in USD revenues to US$4,739mn V/s
US$4,738mn expected. On constant currency terms, the company posted a qoq
growth of 1.7%, driven by volume growth of 3.2% qoq. In rupee terms, revenues
came in at `30,541cr V/s `30,465cr, up 3.2% qoq.
In terms of geography, USA (North America posted 1.4% qoq CC, Latin America
posted 5.7% qoq CC), Europe (UK posted a 2.5% qoq CC growth, Continental
Europe posted a 5.3% qoq CC growth), Asia Pacific posted a 3.0% qoq CC
growth.
In terms of verticals BFSI posted a 1.9% qoq CC growth, Retail & CPG posted a
dip of 0.9% qoq CC, Communication & Media posted a 1.4% qoq CC growth,
Manufacturing a 1.9% qoq CC growth, Life Sciences & healthcare posted a 3.6%
qoq growth, Energy & utilities posted a 7.2% qoq growth, Travel & Hospitality
posted a qoq CC growth of 8.0%, Digital revenue posted a qoq CC growth of
5.9%.
EBIT margin, came in at 25.1% V/s 24.1% expected, a qoq expansion of 1.7%,
much better than expected on back of good volume growth. In client additions, the
company added clients $100M+ up by 1; $50M+, $20M+ & $10M+ each up by
6.Consequently, PAT came in at `6,466cr V/s `6,314cr expected, a rise of 8.8%
qoq. We maintain our neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E
Sales OPM
PAT
EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2017E
1,27,403
27.6
28,272
144.5
29.7
17.6
5.2
12.6
3.5
FY2018E
1,38,870
27.6
30,524
156.0
29.8
16.3
4.9
11.4
3.1
Economic and Political News
Odisha 3rd best state at attracting investments: Assocham
Banks to need `3.3 lakh cr as NPA provisioning in FY18: CRISIL
Internet of Things (IOT) market likely to grow to $1.29 trillion by 2020: IDC-
Aeris
Corporate News
Bharti Airtel acquires Tata Teleservices, to take over spectrum liability of nearly
`2,000cr
Piramal Enterprises to raise `7,000cr via convertible debentures and rights
issue
Cyient Q2FY18 profit at `109cr, up 14% YoY
Market Outlook
October 13, 2017
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Reliance Industries Ltd - Oct 13, 2017
Particulars ( ` cr)
2QFY18E
2QFY17
y-o-y (%)
1QFY18 q-o-q (%)
Net sales
85,785
76,161
12.6
83,471
2.4
EBITDA
12,724
11,176
13.8
12,554
1.3
EBITDA margin (%)
14.8
14.6
15.1
Net profit
7,988
7,206
10.8
9,079
(12.1)
Market Outlook
October 13, 2017
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Strong growth in domestic business due to its leade`hip
in acute therapeutic segment. Alkem expects to launch
Alkem Laboratories
21,906
1,832
2,079
13.5
more products in USA, which bodes for its international
business.
We expect the company would report strong profitability
Asian Granito
1,478
491
570
16.0
owing to better product mix, higher B2C sales and
amalgamation synergy.
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the
Blue Star
7,558
789
867
9.9
market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to
improve once operating environment turns around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
16,681
532
610
14.7
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Loan growth is likely to pick up after a sluggish FY17.
Lower credit cost will help in strong bottom-line growth.
Karur Vysya Bank
7,938
131
180
37.0
Increasing share of CASA will help in NIM
improvement.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising B2C
KEI Industries
2,589
333
380
14.2
sales and higher exports to boost the revenues and
profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex requirement
Music Broadcast
2,265
397
434
9.3
and 15 year long radio broadcast licensing.
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage
Navkar Corporation
2,688
189
265
40.6
at ICD as well CFS augur well for the company
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,529
2,698
2,856
5.9
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
Market leaderhip in Hindi news genre and no.
2
viewe`hip ranking in English news genre, exit from the
TV Today Network
2,184
366
435
18.8
radio business, and anticipated growth in ad spends by
corporates to benefit the stock.
After GST, the company is expected to see higher
volumes along with improving product mix. The Gujarat
Maruti Suzuki
2,38,776
7,904
8,658
9.5
plant will also enable higher operating leverage which
will be margin accretive.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next two
GIC Housing
2,762
513
655
27.7
year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement..
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 13, 2017
Key Upcoming Events
Result Calendar
Date
Company
October 13, 2017
Reliance Industries
October 16, 2017
Bajaj Finserv, Colgate Palmolive
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Oct 13, 2017
5:30 PMIndia
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Aug
1.20
2.60
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
10.30
12:00 PMIndia
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Sep
3.24
3.30
6:00 PMUS
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Sep
0.40
0.60
Oct 16, 2017
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
5.60
10.00
7:00 AMChina
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Sep
1.80
1.60
Oct 17, 2017
2:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Sep F
1.50
6:45 PMUS
Industrial Production
%
Sep
(0.90)
0.30
2:00 PMUK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Sep
2.90
Oct 18, 2017
6:00 PMUS
Housing Starts
Thousands
Sep
1,180.00
1,180.00
6:00 PMUS
Building permits
Thousands
Sep
1,272.00
1,230.00
2:00 PMUK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Sep
(2.80)
Oct 19, 2017
7:30 AMChina
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Sep
6.00
6.40
7:30 AMChina
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q
6.90
6.80
Oct 20, 2017
7:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Oct A
(1.20)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 13, 2017
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
6.0
9.1
5.1
8.8
9.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
8.0
7.9
4.2
7.6
7.5
8.0
7.3
7.2
4.0
3.5
7.0
3.2
2.9
7.0
6.1
6.1
3.0
2.4
5.7
6.0
2.0
1.2
0.9
5.0
1.0
4.0
-
3.0
(1.0)
(0.2)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
4.5
4.2
54.0
3.9
4.0
3.6
3.7
3.4
3.4
52.0
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.0
50.0
3.0
2.4
2.2
48.0
2.5
2.0
46.0
1.5
1.5
44.0
1.0
42.0
0.5
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
60.0
6.50
50.0
6.00
40.0
5.50
30.0
5.00
20.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(10.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 13, 2017
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
7.2
6.6
7.0
6.0
5.1
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.3
2.0
1.4
1.6
2.0
1.4
1.2
0.2
0.8
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research, data as of 12th Oct-17
Market Outlook
October 13, 2017
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
76,660
3.1
18.2
25.4
Russia
Micex
2,095
1.8
6.8
6.5
India
Nifty
10,096
0.9
3.2
16.1
China
Shanghai Composite
3,386
0.0
5.4
13.3
South Africa
Top 40
51,353
3.5
10.0
13.8
Mexico
Mexbol
49,963
(1.0)
(2.3)
4.7
Indonesia
LQ45
986
1.1
1.3
5.2
Malaysia
KLCI
1,754
(1.6)
(0.2)
5.5
Thailand
SET 50
1,094
4.2
9.9
13.6
USA
Dow Jones
22,841
3.3
6.0
26.2
UK
FTSE
7,556
2.1
1.9
7.7
Japan
Nikkei
20,955
8.7
4.4
24.6
Germany
DAX
12,983
4.1
2.7
22.1
France
CAC
5,361
2.9
2.4
18.1
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research, data as of 12th Oct-17 p68in4
Stock Watch
October 13, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Reduce
236
209
4,597
1,873
2,099
15.0
15.0
9.5
10.5
24.9
22.5
3.8
3.4
15.8
16.0
2.3
2.1
United Phosphorus
Neutral
807
-
41,011
18,922
21,949
18.0
18.5
36.2
45.6
22.3
17.7
4.7
3.9
22.7
23.8
2.3
2.0
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Neutral
125
-
36,684
23,339
27,240
10.1
10.8
4.7
6.2
27.0
20.2
5.4
4.8
20.0
23.6
1.5
1.3
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
3,154
-
91,269
23,936
27,955
19.5
20.1
142.7
167.3
22.1
18.9
4.8
4.3
21.8
22.8
3.4
2.9
Bharat Forge
Buy
648
875
30,168
7,637
8,755
21.7
23.2
36.1
47.3
18.0
13.7
3.2
2.7
18.5
20.8
3.8
3.2
Eicher Motors
Neutral
31,336
-
85,304
19,043
22,837
19.5
19.9
835.4
1,019.0
37.5
30.8
14.0
10.8
40.9
37.8
4.3
3.6
Gabriel India
Neutral
199
-
2,862
1,782
2,033
9.7
10.2
7.1
8.9
28.1
22.5
5.7
4.8
21.0
22.2
1.6
1.3
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
3,742
4,129
74,733
32,239
36,878
16.0
15.6
184.4
206.5
20.3
18.1
6.4
5.6
31.3
30.7
2.1
1.8
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
60
-
2,399
1,441
1,662
14.4
14.8
13.9
17.6
4.3
3.4
1.2
1.0
30.0
31.0
1.7
1.4
Mahindra and Mahindra Neutral
1,339
-
83,170
46,971
53,816
13.6
14.0
67.7
79.8
19.8
16.8
2.8
2.5
15.0
15.9
1.7
1.4
Maruti
Accumulate
7,904
8,658
238,776
81,825
101,245
15.0
15.0
283.5
356.0
27.9
22.2
6.1
5.0
21.9
22.4
2.6
2.0
Minda Industries
Neutral
816
-
7,053
4,328
5,084
11.0
11.9
27.3
36.4
30.0
22.4
6.3
5.0
23.1
25.6
1.7
1.5
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
357
-
75,186
55,937
64,445
10.8
11.4
16.9
21.1
21.1
17.0
4.7
4.8
25.2
25.4
1.4
1.2
Tata Motors
Neutral
420
-
121,355
303,167
343,649
11.8
13.8
33.1
54.7
12.7
7.7
2.1
1.7
16.9
23.0
0.5
0.4
TVS Motor
Neutral
696
-
33,087
13,992
16,216
9.0
9.4
17.1
20.3
40.9
34.3
10.8
8.4
29.7
27.7
2.3
1.9
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
693
858
11,844
6,140
7,122
14.3
15.6
29.3
39.0
23.7
17.8
4.0
3.4
17.1
19.0
1.9
1.7
Exide Industries
Neutral
206
-
17,497
8,689
9,854
15.1
15.2
9.7
11.0
21.3
18.7
3.8
3.3
15.7
16.1
1.7
1.5
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
242
-
12,308
15,739
17,326
13.3
14.6
20.4
26.7
11.9
9.1
1.4
1.3
20.4
26.7
1.0
0.9
Ceat
Neutral
1,729
-
6,992
6,661
7,717
11.1
14.2
116.2
178.2
14.9
9.7
2.6
2.2
15.2
21.3
1.2
1.0
JK Tyres
Neutral
150
-
3,393
8,318
9,239
16.2
16.4
21.0
27.5
7.1
5.4
1.4
1.1
19.1
20.4
0.9
0.7
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
2,091
-
2,597
788
889
16.4
16.5
71.6
81.0
29.2
25.8
8.4
7.8
29.6
31.0
3.0
2.6
Subros
Neutral
243
-
1,457
1,855
2,135
11.6
11.8
10.3
14.7
23.7
16.6
3.6
3.1
15.8
19.1
1.0
0.9
Capital Goods
BEML
Neutral
1,718
-
7,156
4,286
5,194
7.1
8.2
42.9
58.1
40.1
29.6
3.3
3.0
7.6
8.7
1.7
1.4
Bharat Electronics
Neutral
169
-
41,609
10,258
12,470
19.6
19.5
7.3
8.6
23.2
19.7
0.5
0.4
20.4
21.9
3.5
2.9
Voltas
Neutral
535
-
17,709
6,778
8,004
9.6
11.0
17.1
22.4
31.3
23.9
7.5
6.5
17.7
19.8
2.3
1.9
BHEL
Neutral
85
-
31,060
33,200
39,167
6.8
9.5
6.2
11.2
13.7
7.6
0.6
0.6
4.6
8.0
0.5
0.4
Blue Star
Accumulate
789
867
7,558
5,220
6,207
6.3
6.6
16.8
22.3
47.0
35.4
9.3
8.2
19.9
23.3
1.4
1.2
CG Power and Industrial
Neutral
79
-
4,945
6,555
7,292
7.5
7.5
-
0.8
7,890.0
98.6
1.2
1.2
0.1
1.2
0.8
0.8
Solutions
Greaves Cotton
Neutral
132
-
3,235
1,778
1,993
14.7
15.1
8.1
9.1
16.4
14.6
3.7
3.4
21.8
23.6
1.6
1.4
Stock Watch
October 13, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
Capital Goods
KEC International
Buy
304
350
7,814
9,779
11,113
9.4
9.8
14.2
18.2
21.4
16.7
4.1
3.4
21.1
22.1
1.1
0.9
KEI Industries
Accumulate
333
380
2,589
3,001
3,391
10.0
10.0
13.0
16.1
25.6
20.7
4.7
3.9
18.2
18.7
1.0
0.9
Thermax
Neutral
921
-
10,979
4,125
4,747
10.3
10.8
26.7
31.5
34.5
29.3
3.9
3.5
11.2
12.0
2.4
2.1
VATech Wabag
Buy
583
681
3,185
3,867
4,126
9.6
10.0
34.9
39.8
16.7
14.7
2.8
2.4
17.7
17.5
0.8
0.8
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,742
-
32,706
12,255
13,350
13.5
14.3
58.0
66.2
30.0
26.3
3.6
3.3
11.5
12.2
2.6
2.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
278
-
55,112
10,250
11,450
17.5
19.0
7.2
8.3
38.6
33.4
2.8
2.6
7.0
7.8
5.2
4.5
India Cements
Neutral
179
-
5,511
6,135
6,750
14.8
15.2
8.5
11.5
21.0
15.6
1.0
1.0
4.8
6.2
1.2
1.1
JK Cement
Neutral
975
-
6,818
4,150
4,775
19.2
20.0
49.0
63.5
19.9
15.4
3.2
2.7
17.0
18.5
2.1
1.8
J K Lakshmi Cement
Neutral
384
-
4,516
3,422
3,757
15.5
17.0
13.5
23.2
28.4
16.5
3.0
2.5
10.8
15.5
1.7
1.5
Orient Cement
Neutral
153
-
3,132
2,215
3,233
16.8
17.0
5.9
6.9
25.9
22.2
2.0
1.8
10.8
10.1
2.4
1.6
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
3,922
-
107,675
28,250
35,150
20.2
23.5
77.5
122.2
50.6
32.1
4.3
3.9
9.6
14.8
4.3
3.4
Construction
KNR Constructions
Neutral
208
-
2,923
1,846
2,203
14.5
14.5
12.1
13.7
17.2
15.2
0.9
0.8
17.5
16.7
1.6
1.4
Larsen & Toubro
Neutral
1,143
-
160,033
95,787
109,476
10.2
11.6
44.5
50.8
25.7
22.5
3.2
3.0
12.9
13.1
2.2
2.0
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
139
-
6,705
739
842
61.6
62.7
5.1
6.2
27.2
22.6
3.4
3.3
12.7
14.9
8.5
7.4
PNC Infratech
Neutral
146
-
3,745
2,040
2,935
13.0
13.0
6.4
9.0
22.8
16.2
0.6
0.5
9.7
12.2
1.8
1.3
Simplex Infra
Neutral
487
-
2,410
6,012
6,619
11.6
11.7
21.1
31.0
23.1
15.7
1.6
1.5
6.5
8.6
0.9
0.8
Sadbhav Engineering
Accumulate
277
298
4,753
3,823
4,426
10.7
10.8
10.3
11.8
26.9
23.5
3.2
2.8
10.1
10.5
1.6
1.4
NBCC
Neutral
242
-
21,776
9,099
12,706
6.4
6.4
7.3
9.6
33.2
25.3
1.5
1.2
27.5
30.5
2.3
1.6
MEP Infra
Neutral
98
-
1,600
2,403
2,910
18.3
16.8
2.4
6.1
41.8
16.2
15.9
10.7
35.2
55.8
1.8
1.5
SIPL
Neutral
100
-
3,533
2,060
2,390
46.8
47.7
(5.8)
(3.1)
3.8
4.3
(14.2)
(2.3)
6.5
6.1
Engineers India
Neutral
153
-
10,324
1,795
2,611
21.1
22.4
5.9
8.1
26.0
18.9
1.9
1.8
12.9
16.1
4.1
2.7
Financials
Axis Bank
Accumulate
525
580
125,790
32,558
35,843
3.5
3.2
27.8
41.0
18.9
12.8
2.0
1.8
11.4
14.9
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
139
-
31,947
22,533
26,079
2.4
2.4
12.0
20.9
11.5
6.6
0.8
0.7
6.6
11.0
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
304
-
18,176
17,925
20,235
2.0
2.1
18.5
36.5
16.5
8.3
0.6
0.6
3.4
6.2
-
-
Can Fin Homes
Buy
526
2,128
7,001
586
741
3.5
3.5
107.8
141.0
4.9
3.7
1.1
0.9
24.1
25.6
-
-
Cholamandalam Inv. &
Accumulate
1,152
1,230
18,012
2,826
3,307
6.3
6.3
53.7
64.6
21.5
17.9
3.7
3.1
18.3
18.9
-
-
Fin. Co.
Dewan Housing Finance Accumulate
532
610
16,681
2,676
3,383
2.4
2.7
37.4
49.7
14.2
10.7
1.9
1.6
13.8
16.2
-
-
Equitas Holdings
Buy
152
235
5,146
1,125
1,380
9.6
9.8
1.5
6.0
101.3
25.3
2.3
2.1
2.4
8.2
-
-
Federal Bank
Accumulate
118
125
22,996
4,896
5,930
2.8
3.1
5.4
7.6
22.0
15.6
1.9
1.7
8.5
11.0
-
-
Stock Watch
October 13, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
Financials
GIC Housing
Buy
513
655
2,762
376
477
3.6
3.7
33.0
40.0
15.5
12.8
2.8
2.4
20.0
23.0
-
-
HDFC Bank
Neutral
1,815
-
468,639
55,236
63,253
4.5
4.4
68.9
82.4
26.4
22.0
4.6
3.8
18.7
18.5
-
-
ICICI Bank
Buy
268
315
171,664
42,361
51,378
3.6
3.9
18.4
25.7
14.6
10.4
1.6
1.5
11.3
15.0
-
-
Karur Vysya Bank
Buy
131
180
7,938
3,289
3,630
3.7
3.9
10.8
14.1
12.1
9.3
1.5
1.3
12.5
14.7
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Neutral
651
-
32,874
4,895
6,332
3.4
3.7
50.7
66.8
12.8
9.8
2.6
2.1
21.7
23.8
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
134
-
28,440
23,708
25,758
2.1
2.1
5.9
16.4
22.7
8.1
0.7
0.6
3.0
8.3
-
-
RBL Bank
Neutral
517
-
21,340
2,309
2,888
2.6
2.5
16.4
19.1
31.6
27.1
4.0
3.5
13.3
13.8
-
-
Repco Home Finance
Buy
643
825
4,021
496
597
4.4
4.2
38.5
48.7
16.7
13.2
3.0
2.5
19.6
20.6
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
31
-
5,657
3,195
3,567
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.8
10.4
8.2
1.0
0.9
10.5
11.9
-
-
St Bk of India
Neutral
252
-
217,182
105,827
121,056
2.4
2.5
16.1
25.6
15.6
9.8
1.2
1.1
6.6
9.9
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
127
-
9,207
14,650
16,225
2.3
2.3
23.1
32.5
5.5
3.9
0.4
0.4
7.1
9.2
-
-
Yes Bank
Neutral
365
-
83,659
11,088
13,138
3.0
2.9
84.0
99.3
4.4
3.7
0.7
0.6
16.3
16.8
-
-
FMCG
Akzo Nobel India
Neutral
1,821
-
8,734
3,164
3,607
13.8
13.7
58.6
67.9
31.1
26.8
7.6
6.7
24.5
25.1
2.6
2.3
Asian Paints
Neutral
1,160
-
111,277
17,603
20,615
18.6
18.6
2,128.9
2,543.3
0.5
0.5
11.5
9.7
28.0
28.9
6.1
5.2
Britannia
Neutral
4,558
-
54,725
9,690
11,278
14.8
15.4
84.0
101.0
54.3
45.1
19.8
15.7
40.6
39.0
5.6
4.8
Colgate
Neutral
1,110
-
30,184
4,420
5,074
24.9
25.3
28.6
32.8
38.8
33.8
15.3
12.4
43.8
40.5
6.6
5.7
Dabur India
Neutral
325
-
57,293
8,346
9,344
19.6
19.9
7.8
9.0
41.7
36.1
8.4
7.6
25.2
24.8
6.5
5.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
5,000
-
21,027
5,072
5,760
18.2
18.4
176.3
199.2
28.4
25.1
6.0
5.4
21.2
21.7
3.5
3.0
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
974
-
66,368
10,171
11,682
20.8
21.5
21.7
27.1
44.9
35.9
10.1
8.7
22.3
23.4
6.6
5.7
HUL
Neutral
1,238
-
268,006
37,077
41,508
20.3
21.8
5,189.9
6,318.5
0.2
0.2
37.8
32.2
74.8
82.0
7.1
6.3
ITC
Neutral
267
-
325,214
44,588
49,853
37.0
37.3
9.6
11.0
27.8
24.3
6.8
6.5
25.1
27.3
6.8
6.0
Marico
Neutral
320
-
41,302
6,788
7,766
18.5
19.2
7.1
8.5
45.1
37.7
15.8
13.5
36.9
38.0
5.9
5.2
Nestle*
Neutral
7,381
-
71,162
10,083
11,182
20.0
20.9
119.7
141.3
61.7
52.2
217.3
198.6
36.7
39.8
6.7
6.0
Tata Global
Neutral
212
-
13,370
7,121
7,641
11.9
12.3
6.9
8.0
30.7
26.5
2.1
2.0
6.8
7.2
1.7
1.5
Procter & Gamble
Neutral
8,596
-
27,903
3,034
3,579
27.1
27.7
167.7
198.8
51.3
43.2
13.8
11.9
28.8
29.5
8.6
7.2
Hygiene
IT
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
913
1,014
130,277
52,342
57,053
20.9
20.9
62.8
67.6
14.5
13.5
3.3
2.8
22.4
20.6
2.2
1.9
Infosys
Buy
927
1,179
212,963
73,963
80,619
26.0
26.0
64.4
69.3
14.4
13.4
2.8
2.6
19.7
19.6
2.3
2.1
TCS
Neutral
2,549
-
502,173
127,403
138,870
27.6
27.6
144.5
156.0
17.6
16.3
5.2
4.9
29.7
29.8
3.6
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
474
533
46,253
31,015
33,496
15.0
15.0
35.6
38.1
13.3
12.4
2.3
2.1
17.0
16.3
1.3
1.1
Stock Watch
October 13, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
IT
Wipro
Neutral
292
-
142,326
58,536
61,858
20.3
20.3
18.2
19.1
16.1
15.3
2.5
2.2
14.6
13.4
2.4
2.2
Media
D B Corp
Neutral
375
-
6,904
2,404
2,625
30.5
31.5
23.7
26.9
15.8
14.0
3.7
3.2
23.5
22.8
2.7
2.5
HT Media
Neutral
95
-
2,217
2,589
2,830
15.1
15.4
8.3
10.9
11.5
8.7
0.9
0.8
8.4
10.4
0.4
0.3
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
179
225
5,853
2,541
2,835
28.5
28.7
12.7
14.1
14.1
12.7
2.9
2.5
21.3
21.4
2.2
1.9
Sun TV Network
Neutral
793
-
31,263
3,238
3,789
51.9
55.1
30.9
38.0
25.7
20.9
7.3
6.4
30.0
31.0
9.2
7.7
Hindustan Media
Neutral
247
-
1,813
1,002
1,074
23.3
23.5
29.2
33.8
8.5
7.3
1.3
1.1
15.6
15.4
0.8
0.5
Ventures
TV Today Network
Buy
366
435
2,184
667
727
27.7
27.7
18.6
20.1
19.7
18.3
3.1
3.1
15.6
17.3
2.8
2.6
Music Broadcast Limited Accumulate
397
434
2,265
271
317
91.0
109.0
6.0
10.0
66.2
39.7
4.1
3.8
6.5
9.3
7.9
6.6
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Neutral
282
-
175,297
82,301
91,235
17.0
18.0
17.1
20.5
16.5
13.8
3.1
2.9
45.0
55.0
1.8
1.6
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
315
-
133,013
22,108
24,555
57.0
58.0
22.1
26.3
14.2
12.0
4.6
3.7
32.0
35.0
5.0
4.2
Hindalco
Neutral
264
-
59,142
102,350
105,355
13.5
14.5
21.5
24.5
12.3
10.8
1.7
1.4
15.0
15.2
1.2
1.1
JSW Steel
Neutral
256
-
61,857
64,500
68,245
21.1
21.5
20.1
21.2
12.7
12.1
2.3
2.0
-
-
1.7
1.6
NMDC
Neutral
119
-
37,777
10,209
11,450
47.0
48.0
11.1
12.1
10.8
9.9
1.5
1.4
-
-
3.2
2.9
SAIL
Neutral
56
-
23,190
54,100
63,555
3.0
10.0
(10.0)
1.5
37.4
0.8
0.7
-
-
1.4
1.2
Vedanta
Neutral
320
-
118,764
81,206
87,345
28.0
29.0
26.5
33.5
12.1
9.5
2.7
2.4
-
-
2.2
1.9
Tata Steel
Neutral
691
-
67,096
121,445
126,500
16.2
17.2
65.4
81.3
10.6
8.5
1.7
1.4
-
-
1.1
0.9
Oil & Gas
GAIL
Neutral
446
-
75,432
53,115
52,344
14.2
15.3
30.0
31.1
14.9
14.3
1.9
1.7
-
-
1.1
1.1
ONGC
Neutral
170
-
218,101
83,111
84,934
44.2
44.9
16.4
16.9
10.4
10.1
1.3
1.2
-
-
2.5
2.5
Indian Oil Corp
Neutral
415
-
201,423
396,116
432,560
8.5
8.8
40.1
42.2
10.3
9.8
1.8
1.6
-
-
0.7
0.6
Reliance Industries
Neutral
873
-
567,457
257,711
267,438
17.0
18.2
89.1
89.5
9.8
9.8
0.9
0.9
-
-
1.9
1.8
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
494
600
9,320
3,903
4,584
18.2
19.2
21.8
27.2
22.7
18.2
4.1
3.4
19.8
20.6
2.4
2.1
Alkem Laboratories Ltd
Accumulate
1,832
2,079
21,906
6,320
7,341
17.5
19.8
72.7
96.6
25.2
19.0
4.5
3.8
16.7
18.7
3.4
2.9
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
745
823
43,657
17,086
19,478
22.1
22.0
44.7
51.4
16.7
14.5
3.7
3.0
24.7
22.7
2.7
2.3
Aventis*
Neutral
4,247
-
9,782
2,508
2,862
16.8
16.8
139.9
153.8
30.4
27.6
4.4
3.6
23.5
25.8
3.5
2.9
Cadila Healthcare
Sell
501
426
51,315
11,584
13,228
20.3
20.4
18.7
21.3
26.8
23.5
6.0
4.9
24.6
22.9
4.3
3.7
Cipla
Sell
590
458
47,480
16,619
19,437
15.4
16.2
19.7
24.3
30.0
24.3
3.4
3.0
12.0
13.2
3.0
2.6
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
2,380
-
39,459
15,844
17,973
17.6
18.2
91.7
111.0
26.0
21.4
3.0
2.7
11.9
13.0
2.7
2.4
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,427
-
20,555
3,260
3,651
15.0
18.0
46.1
58.6
52.6
41.4
10.8
11.2
20.0
26.5
6.2
5.7
Indoco Remedies
Sell
259
153
2,386
1,154
1,310
14.9
14.9
11.3
12.7
22.9
20.4
3.3
2.9
15.0
15.0
2.2
1.9
Stock Watch
October 13, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
FY18E
FY19E
Pharmaceuticals
Ipca labs
Accumulate
501
540
6,321
3,593
4,022
14.5
15.5
19.4
25.2
25.8
19.9
2.4
2.1
9.5
11.2
1.8
1.6
Lupin
Buy
1,060
1,467
47,881
18,657
21,289
21.3
23.3
52.8
66.7
20.1
15.9
3.0
2.6
16.3
17.5
2.6
2.1
Natco Pharma
Accumulate
993
1,057
17,306
1,886
2,016
32.3
29.5
23.2
22.0
42.9
45.0
9.0
7.9
20.9
17.6
9.0
8.4
Sun Pharma
Neutral
539
-
129,415
32,899
36,451
26.9
25.4
31.6
32.3
17.1
16.7
3.0
2.6
18.7
18.8
3.6
3.1
Syngene International
Accumulate
494
557
9,880
1,402
1,823
32.8
36.0
15.9
20.7
31.1
23.9
5.8
4.8
18.7
20.0
7.0
5.4
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
82
-
22,098
32,547
33,806
20.5
20.5
4.7
5.4
17.4
15.3
1.7
1.4
10.5
10.5
1.7
1.6
NTPC
Neutral
177
-
145,615
86,070
101,246
28.3
30.7
12.9
16.2
13.7
10.9
1.4
1.3
10.6
12.4
3.1
2.7
Power Grid
Accumulate
203
223
106,044
29,183
32,946
89.7
90.0
18.0
20.8
11.3
9.8
1.9
1.7
17.7
18.2
7.6
7.0
Real Estate
Prestige Estate
Neutral
286
-
10,731
4,607
5,146
21.0
22.2
7.9
9.8
36.2
29.2
2.2
2.1
10.3
12.0
3.5
3.2
MLIFE
Accumulate
461
522
2,367
487
590
12.3
17.8
21.0
31.2
22.0
14.8
1.2
1.1
5.2
7.4
3.6
2.9
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
400
-
159,916
97,903
105,233
36.0
36.3
9.3
11.1
43.0
36.2
2.1
2.0
5.0
5.6
2.6
2.3
Idea Cellular
Neutral
75
-
26,871
35,012
37,689
27.1
27.7
(4.4)
(2.7)
1.2
1.2
(6.8)
(4.6)
2.1
1.9
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,192
-
8,907
3,244
3,723
14.9
16.1
167.5
209.4
25.0
20.0
5.5
4.6
23.7
24.8
2.4
2.0
Asian Granito
Buy
491
570
1,478
1,169
1,286
12.5
12.5
16.0
19.7
30.8
24.9
3.3
2.9
10.7
11.6
1.5
1.3
Bajaj Electricals
Accumulate
375
395
3,805
4,646
5,301
6.7
7.6
16.1
22.3
23.3
16.8
3.8
3.2
16.4
19.2
0.8
0.7
Banco Products (India)
Neutral
223
-
1,596
1,530
1,695
13.2
12.7
19.0
20.0
11.8
11.2
1.9
1.7
0.2
0.2
1.0
106.0
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
220
-
4,532
3,494
3,913
17.4
18.0
4.8
5.7
-
38.6
2.0
1.9
-
0.1
1.8
1.5
Ltd
Elecon Engineering
Neutral
67
-
747
171
201
15.0
16.2
36.0
43.0
1.9
1.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
3.7
3.2
Garware Wall Ropes
Neutral
905
-
1,979
928
1,003
15.2
15.2
39.4
43.2
22.9
21.0
3.8
3.2
16.5
15.4
2.0
1.8
Goodyear India*
Neutral
818
-
1,887
1,717
1,866
11.8
12.3
47.9
49.8
17.1
16.4
2.6
2.3
15.6
15.7
0.8
113.7
Hitachi
Neutral
2,040
-
5,547
2,355
2,715
10.3
10.8
49.0
60.9
41.6
33.5
9.7
7.7
0.2
0.2
2.4
2.0
HSIL
Neutral
453
-
3,275
2,240
2,670
14.6
15.0
17.0
22.0
26.7
20.6
2.2
2.1
0.1
0.1
1.7
1.4
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
1,134
-
41,026
22,570
27,955
14.2
15.0
63.6
81.8
17.9
13.9
9.4
7.9
0.5
0.6
1.5
1.1
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
389
-
7,076
1,781
2,044
14.1
15.0
9.4
10.5
41.7
37.1
8.9
8.3
0.2
0.2
4.2
3.6
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
254
-
376
420
462
9.3
9.3
15.3
17.1
16.6
14.8
2.8
2.9
16.9
19.5
0.9
0.9
M M Forgings
Neutral
855
-
1,032
542
642
20.1
21.0
41.6
56.8
20.6
15.1
2.8
2.4
0.1
0.2
2.3
2.0
Mirza International
Neutral
162
-
1,953
1,148
1,285
18.0
18.0
8.0
9.4
20.2
17.4
3.3
2.8
16.3
16.1
1.9
1.6
Navkar Corporation
Buy
189
265
2,688
561
617
41.5
41.5
11.5
12.7
16.4
14.8
1.7
1.5
10.5
10.4
5.5
4.7
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,634
-
2,438
2,317
2,525
11.4
11.1
96.0
105.0
17.0
15.6
2.9
2.5
0.2
0.2
1.0
0.9
Stock Watch
October 13, 2017
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E
zOthers
Parag Milk Foods
Neutral
269
-
2,259
1,987
2,379
7.6
9.0
12.4
18.3
21.7
14.7
3.1
2.7
8.2
13.2
1.3
1.1
Radico Khaitan
Neutral
177
-
2,359
1,811
1,992
13.2
13.2
8.1
8.8
21.9
20.1
2.2
2.4
10.1
12.0
1.6
1.5
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
510
-
6,127
1,981
2,310
13.7
14.5
12.0
15.5
42.5
32.9
8.3
6.7
0.2
0.2
3.2
2.7
Siyaram Silk Mills
Accumulate
2,698
2,856
2,529
1,769
1,981
12.7
12.7
113.1
131.1
23.8
20.6
3.7
3.2
15.5
15.5
1.6
1.4
Styrolution ABS India* Neutral
1,057
-
1,859
1,800
1,980
8.0
8.1
42.0
46.2
25.2
22.9
2.8
2.5
0.1
0.1
1.1
1.1
Surya Roshni
Neutral
306
-
1,339
4,870
5,320
7.7
7.8
22.8
28.1
13.4
10.9
1.8
1.5
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.4
TVS Srichakra
Neutral
3,044
-
2,331
2,729
2,893
12.7
12.5
248.5
265.0
12.3
11.5
3.5
2.8
0.3
0.3
0.9
0.8
Visaka Industries
Neutral
676
-
1,073
1,104
1,214
12.1
12.6
31.0
37.9
21.8
17.9
2.7
2.4
0.1
0.1
1.2
1.1
VIP Industries
Accumulate
265
300
3,738
1,450
1,693
10.4
10.5
6.5
7.8
40.4
33.9
8.5
7.5
21.1
22.1
2.6
2.2
Navin Fluorine
Neutral
720
-
3,549
945
1,154
22.4
22.6
28.7
34.8
25.1
20.7
4.2
3.6
-
-
3.3
2.6
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on October 12, 2017
Market Outlook
October 13, 2017
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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